These past couple of months, I went out of my way to watch a number of the remaining heavy-hitters of this year’s Oscar season. I even managed to watch all of the nominated short films.

It might be a little late to post my predictions (and personal picks), since the awards ceremony is tonight, but I’ll go ahead anyway:

(Note: I’ve since edited this post to include the actual winners.)

Best Picture

What Should Win: The Brutalist

What Will Win: Conclave

(What Did Win: Anora)

Best Directing

Who Should Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist

Who Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora

(What Did Win: Sean Baker – Anora)

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Who Should Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist as László Tóth

Who Will Win: Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown as Bob Dylan

(What Did Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist as László Tóth)

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Who Should Win: Mikey Madison – Anora as Anora “Ani” Mikheeva

Who Will Win: Demi Moore – The Substance as Elisabeth Sparkle

(What Did Win: Mikey Madison – Anora as Anora “Ani” Mikheeva)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Who Should Win: Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice as Roy Cohn

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan

(Who Did Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain as Benji Kaplan)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Who Should Win: Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown as Joan Baez

Who Will Win: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez as Rita Mora Castro

(Who Did Win: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez as Rita Mora Castro)

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

What Should Win: Anora

What Will Win: Anora

(What Did Win: Anora)

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

What Should Win: Nickel Boys

What Will Win: Conclave

(What Did Win: Conclave)

Best Animated Feature Film

What Should Win: The Wild Robot

What Will Win: The Wild Robot

(What Did Win: Flow)

Best International Feature Film

What Should Win: I’m Still Here

What Will Win: Emilia Pérez

(What Did Win: I’m Still here)

Best Documentary Feature Film

What Should Win: (No opinion)

What Will Win: Porcelain War

(What Did Win: No Other Land)

Best Documentary Short Film

What Should Win: Instruments of a Beating Heart

What Will Win: Incident

(What Did Win: The Only Girl in the Orchestra)

Best Live Action Short Film

What Should Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

What Will Win: A Lien

(What Did Win: I’m Not a Robot)

Best Animated Short Film

What Should Win: Magic Candies

What Will Win: Magic Candies

(What Did Win: In the Shadow of the Cypress)

Best Music (Original Score)

What Should Win: The Brutalist

What Will Win: Wicked

(What Did Win: The Brutalist)

Best Music (Original Song)

What Should Win: (No opinion)

What Will Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

(What Did Win: “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez)

Best Sound

What Should Win: A Complete Unknown

What Will Win: Wicked

(What Did Win: Dune: Part Two)

Best Production Design

What Should Win: The Brutalist

What Will Win: Wicked

(What Did Win: Wicked)

Best Cinematography

What Should Win: The Brutalist

What Will Win: Dune: Part Two

(What Did Win: The Brutalist)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

What Should Win: The Substance

What Will Win: The Substance

(What Did Win: The Substance)

Best Costume Design

What Should Win: Conclave

What Will Win: Conclave

(What Did Win: Wicked)

Best Film Editing

What Should Win: The Brutalist

What Will Win: Anora

(What Did Win: Anora)

Best Visual Effects

What Should Win: Dune: Part Two

What Will Win: Dune: Part Two

(What Did Win: Dune: Part Two)

Post-Mortem

Actual winners that I thought should win: 8 for 21 (38%)

Actual winners that I thought would win: 10 for 23 (43%)